(Bloomberg) – Pledges by China and the U.S. to set numerical targets for their greenhouse-gas emissions through 2020 may reignite stalled progress for a global climate agreement at negotiations next month in Copenhagen.

China’s cabinet yesterday said it will cut output of carbon dioxide per unit of gross domestic product by 40 percent to 45 percent from 2005. A day earlier, the U.S. said it will propose a direct CO2 reduction in the same period of about 17 percent, provided that dovetails with a new domestic climate law.

“The skies are clearing now,” Anders Turesson, Sweden’s chief climate negotiator, speaking on behalf of the 27-nation European Union, said in an interview. “We see more clearly now what the negotiations in Copenhagen are going to be about.”

The announcements mean the biggest emitters of industrial pollutants blamed for climate change have finally spelled out their intentions to limit discharges, driving forward the United Nations-led talks in the Danish capital that run Dec. 7-18.

Developing nations halted the last round of talks for a day in Barcelona to protest targets promised by richer nations.

Some groups lobbying for a climate deal said the U.S. and Chinese goals were too small to represent a breakthrough.

“There is still a need for really ambitious targets and we don’t see this yet,” said Maryke van Staden, who follows the negotiations for ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, an association representing 1,100 cities around the world.

‘Grossly Irresponsible’

The UN, which leads the talks, responded more positively. The moves “can unlock two of the last doors to a comprehensive agreement” to curb global-warming gases, Yvo de Boer, the top United Nations climate official, said in a statement. The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, welcomed the goals while urging both nations to go further.

Neither proposal is as strong as the EU plan to cut emissions by 20 percent from 1990 through 2020.

The U.S. move depends on Congress passing climate- protection legislation. It’s also short of the 25 percent to 40 percent emissions cut by developed nations from 1990 levels UN scientists say is needed to avert the worst effects of warming.

“For many small island states, President Obama’s offer appears grossly irresponsible and kills all hope for Copenhagen,” Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Michael Somare said today in an e-mailed statement. “The world’s poor and most vulnerable deserve true leadership from the U.S.”

China’s Rising Emissions

China’s pledge on emissions is voluntary, and the Asian nation has balked in climate negotiations at taking on legally binding commitments. Turesson said China’s vow should “be quite firmly mirrored in a treaty.”

China’s emissions, even with its new pledge, will still have an absolute gain in coming years though “it’s pretty much impossible to put an exact figure on it,” said Liam Salter, a business development director at the Hong Kong-based carbon consultant RESET.

“We can factor in reductions in carbon intensity and estimate how much China’s economy will grow but then you have to figure in how much China can offset this with measures like improving energy efficiency,” Salter said.

China’s economy has more than quadrupled since 2000 to $4.3 trillion and will grow by 8.5 percent this year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

Rich, Poor Divide

Premier Wen Jiabao and U.S. President Barack Obama are among at least 66 leaders who will seek agreement on a framework for an accord to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. China’s target gives the world’s fastest-growing major economy new negotiating points heading into the talks.

“They’ve done a lot, they deflected a lot of pressure away from themselves and put it back on to the developed world in terms of targets,” Trevor Sikorski, a London-based analyst at Barclays Capital. “It’s a pretty smart thing to do and it looks fairly ambitious.”

De Boer has called on all developed countries to commit to legally binding emissions reductions as part of a new deal to fight climate change. Developing countries must also say what actions they’re taking, without defining absolute reduction targets, the UN official said.

Negotiations leading up to the summit have been stymied as richer nations and developing countries disagreed on issues such as emissions-reduction targets and how much financial help industrialized nations should provide to poorer ones.

“Developed countries should take the lead in cutting emissions significantly,” Xie Zhenhua, China’s top climate negotiator, said yesterday in Beijing.

China and India have said industrialized countries must be willing to cut their carbon output 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2020 if they expect poorer nations to agree to long-term reduction goals.

Matching Pledges

The U.S. pledge is contingent on a deal in Copenhagen including “robust mitigation contributions from China and the other emerging economies,” the White House said in a statement.

That pledge amounts to a reduction of about 5 percent from 1990 levels. The EU has said it’ll cut emissions by 20 percent over three decades and it’ll ramp that up to a 30 percent reduction if an ambitious global deal is reached.

“On the U.S., we note that of course the figure for 2020 is insufficient,” Sweden’s Turesson said. “We hope that the insufficient numbers for 2020 could be complemented by other action such as measures in forestry.”

Brazil, Russia, South Korea

The White House said the U.S. intends to reduce emissions by 30 percent from 2005 levels in 2025 and a 42 percent cut by 2030. Legislation backed by Obama to cut greenhouse gases and establish a market for the trading of pollution allowances passed the House in June, then stalled in the Senate.

At the last round of UN talks in Barcelona this month, the UN’s de Boer said a legally binding deal won’t be possible in Copenhagen and a political agreement must be reached that over the following year can be translated into a treaty.

Aside from the U.S. and China, other countries to come forward with greenhouse-gas reduction offers this month include South Korea, Brazil and Russia.

“It is clear to the world: the Copenhagen deadline works,” said Connie Hedegaard, the Danish minister who will chair the talks. “All across the globe, things are moving.”

If you enjoyed this post then Subscribe to Savvy Investor via RSS